Analysts Detect Signs That Kim Will Lead North Korea His Way
Published: July 18, 2012 (Issue # 1718)
From Mickey Mouse and a mysterious female companion, to the whiff of economic reform and the surprising ouster of his military mentor, evidence is mounting that North Korea’s Kim Jong Un will lead very differently than his secretive father.
Seven months after inheriting the country from Kim Jong Il, the 20-something leader suddenly began appearing in public with a beautiful young woman. Dressed in a chic suit with a modern cut, her hair stylishly cropped, she carried herself with the poise of a first lady as she sat by his side for an unforgettable performance: Mickey Mouse grooving with women in little black dresses jamming on electric violins.
A few days later, video showed her flirting with Kim Jong Un during a visit to a kindergarten. She quickly became the subject of fervent speculation: Is she his wife? Girlfriend? A friend?
But the scent of change extends well beyond Mickey and miniskirts: A change of the guard in North Korea’s powerful military is taking place, as Kim retires his father’s confidantes and elevates a younger generation of generals. He promoted a group of younger economists to key party positions, part of a stated push to resuscitate an economy that has lagged far behind the rest of Asia.
Bureaucrats have been dispatched to rein in new foreign investment. A rare admission of failure came when Pyongyang’s vaunted rocket failed to make it into orbit. Kim Jong Un has delivered a pair of public speeches when his father avoided such displays.
To the outside world, these changes may seem trivial. In North Korea, they represent a seismic shift. For decades in this country built on a philosophy of “juche,” or self-reliance, shutting out the West was a state policy. So was shielding the private lives of its leaders from the masses.
Long at odds with the U.S. and its allies over a nuclear program that Pyongyang refuses to abandon, North Korea has struggled to feed its population. A recent UN report said two-thirds of its 24 million people face chronic food shortages, and access to clean water, regular electricity and medicine is still remote for most of those living in the underdeveloped countryside. A U.S.-based aid group also says scores of prisoners remain held in Soviet-style penal camps.
Still, there’s a glimmer of hope in the baby steps that North Korea is taking, said John Delury, an assistant professor at Yonsei University in South Korea, who has visited Pyongyang several times in recent years.
“That’s the subtle kind of way Deng Xiaoping signaled a new direction in the 1970s in China,” he said. “It doesn’t start with someone saying, ‘OK, we’re going to abandon communism.’ It starts in smaller ways like this.”
But it’s too soon to talk about economic and political “reform,” said Daniel Pinkston, an analyst with the International Crisis Group. North Korea needs to begin making real, lasting structural changes before that word can be used to describe the movement.