Iran Halts Oil Supplies to Germany – TV

Iran halts oil supplies to Germany

Iran has halted its oil exports to Germany, Iranian Press TV channel reported on Wednesday.
The EU voted in late January to ban oil imports from Iran. The move came after the Islamic Republic announced that it had launched a nuclear enrichment program at a well-protected underground facility near the holy Shia city of Qom.
The program envisages enriching uranium to the 20-percent level, which can easily be turned into fissile warhead material.
The embargo is set to come into force in summer but Iran has said it may cut crude oil shipments to Europe early and warned that the EU embargo on oil imports from Iran may push world oil prices to $150 per barrel.
Iran has already halted oil exports to Greece, France and the UK, cut oil supplies to Spain and threatened to stop exporting oil to more European countries – Italy, Portugal and the Netherlands – if they continued to take actions directed against Tehran.

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German oil reserve capacity

Oil Production: 156,800 bbl/Day [2011]
Oil Consumption: 2,437,000 bbl/Day [2011]
Proven Reserves: 276,000,000 bbl/Day [2011]

Information Source:
http://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.asp?country_id=Germany


Days of production remaining 1760 days @ 156,800 bbl/Day. (100% retrieval – unrealistic)
Years of production left 4.8 years @ 156,800 bbl/Day. (100% retrieval – unrealistic)

Shortage per day of oil is 2,280,200 bbl/Day.

Required production to meet country demand of 2,437,000 bbl/Day [2011].

Days of production remaining 113 days @ 2,437,000 bbl/Day. (100% retrieval – impossible)
Years of production left 0.3 year @ 2,437,000 bbl/Day. (100% retrieval – impossible)

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Days of production remaining 528 days @ 156,800 bbl/Day. (30% retrieval – realistic)
Years of production left 1.4 years @ 156,800 bbl/Day. (30% retrieval – realistic)

Shortage per day of oil is 2,280,200 bbl/Day.

Required production to meet country demand of 2,437,000 bbl/Day [2011].

Days of production remaining 34 days @ 2,437,000 bbl/Day. (30% retrieval – impossible)
Years of production left 0.1 year @ 2,437,000 bbl/Day. (30% retrieval – impossible)

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Based on these figures once Iranian oil is removed from the German market place if a supplementary oil source cannot be found the Germany economy will immediately start to contract and collapse.

The only economic solution for Germany is to move to a “Work Credit” based economy.

This conclusion is based on the assumption that Iran is providing Germany with 2,280,200 bbl/Day which I think is unlikely.

Never-the-less the oil reserve figures show that the country of Germany is in a GREAT deal of trouble.

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Oil reserve figures for the United States.

Deep concern as US domestic oil supplies begin to dry up. 1.74 years remaining.

United States Oil Production 2011
Oil Production: 9,056,000 bbl/Day [2011]
Oil Consumption: 18,690,000 bbl/Day [2011]
Proven Reserves: 19,120,000,000 bbl/Day [2011]

Days available for production 2,111 at 100% retrieval. (unrealistic)
Years of production left 6. Exhaustion date is 2018. (unrealistic)

Days available for production 2,111 * .30 = 633 at 30% retrieval. (realistic)
Years of production left 1.74. Exhaustion date is 2014. (realistic)

Data source: http://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.asp?country_id=United-States-of-America

Unless a country’s oil reserves are inflated by 70% it is simply unrealistic to pump out 100% of a country’s oil reserves. Realistically 25% of a country’s oil reserves can be pumped out of the ground.
For the case of this comment I have been optimistic at 30% retrieval.

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Conclusion of these numbers: economic collapse of the United States is inevitable beginning in the year 2015 unless a new energy source can be found.

By the year 2015 the United States needs to find an additional 9,056,000 bbl/Day to 10,000,000 bbl/Day of oil to import in order to stay economically viable.

The oil situation in the United States is now absolutely CRITICAL!

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Remaining oil reserves of Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia Oil Production 2011

Oil Production: 9,764,000 bbl/Day [2011]
Oil Consumption: 2,430,000 bbl/Day [2011]
Proven Reserves: 264,600,000,000 bbl/Day [2011]

Days available for production 27,100 at 100% retrieval. (unrealistic)
Years of production left 74. Exhaustion date is 2085. (unrealistic)

Days available for production 27,100 * .30 = 8,130 at 30% retrieval. (realistic)
Years of production left 22. Exhaustion date is 2033. (realistic)


Saudi Arabia Oil Production 2012

Increased production of 450,000 barrels per day in 2012.

Oil Production: 10,214,000 bbl/Day [2012]
Oil Consumption: 2,430,000 bbl/Day [2011]
Proven Reserves: 264,600,000,000 bbl/Day [2011]

Days available for production 25,906 at 100% retrieval. (unrealistic)
Years of production left 71. Exhaustion date is 2082. (unrealistic)

Days available for production 25,906 * .30 = 7,772 at 30% retrieval. (realistic)
Years of production left 21. Exhaustion date is 2032. (realistic)

Data source: http://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.asp?country_id=Saudi-Arabia

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Russia’s oil depletion situation

Oil Production: 10,120,000 bbl/Day [2011]
Oil Consumption: 2,740,000 bbl/Day [2011]
Proven Reserves: 74,200,000,000 bbl/Day [2011]

Days of oil production remaining = (74,200,000,000 / 10,120,000) = 7,332 days (100% retrieval)
Years of oil production remaining = 7,332 / 365 = 20 years (100% retrieval)
Oil resource exhaustion = 2012 + 20 = 2032 (100% retrieval)

Days of oil production remaining = (74,200,000,000 * 30%) / 10,120,000) = 2,200 days (30% retrieval)
Years of oil production remaining = (2,200 / 365) = 6 years (30% retrieval)
Oil resource exhaustion = 2012 + 6 = 2018 (30% retrieval)

It is completely unrealistic for a country to extract 100% of its oil reserves, unless these figures have been inflated by 70% to recognize the oil that cannot be extracted. Under normal conditions 25% of oil reserves can be extracted. For the case of this comment I will be optimistic at 30% retrieval.

Based on current oil reserves Russia will deplete its reserves in 2032 with 100% depletion.

More realistically Russia will deplete its reserves in 2018 with 30% depletion.

http://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.asp?country_id=Russia


Arnold Vinette
Ottawa, Canada

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