International rating agency Standard Poor’s estimates the likelihood of a Greek exit from the eurozone at one-in-three, if the government rejects implementing reforms, the agency said on Tuesday.
“We believe there is at least a one-in-three chance of Greece exiting the eurozone in the coming months, following national elections on June 17. This could be brought about by Greece rejecting the reforms demanded by the troika – the European Commission, International Monetary Fund (IMF), and European Central Bank (ECB) – and a consequent suspension of external financial support,” SP said in a statement.
“Such an outcome would, in our view, seriously damage Greece’s economy and fiscal position in the medium term and most likely lead to another Greek sovereign default,” the agency added.
But SP also believes that other troubled EU countries are unlikely to leave the eurozone as “their European partners would provide additional support to discourage further departures.” The possible Greek exit may also lead to a ratings downgrade for the IMF and the European Financial Stability Facility.