Jhinuk Chowdhury is a former journalist based in India and is currently working as an independent writer. Jhinuk can be reached at jhinuk.cchowdhury@gmail.com
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As mutual distrust drives the growing military buildup in the Asia-Pacific region, bigger powers like the US will use this regional competition to settle scores with its most formidable Asian irritants – North Korea and China.
While worldwide defense expenditure continues to
slide, Asia and Oceania are increasing their
defense outlay. According to Strategic Defence
Intelligence (SDI), the Asia-Pacific region is set to be the
largest military market, especially in fighter jets, with a
market share of more than 33 percent by 2025.
China, India, South Korea and Australia will lead the list of
biggest spenders. The signs are visible already. India is busy
working out the finer details of its recently concluded deal with
France for supply of 36 Rafale fighter jets. China’s military
resurgence has picked up greater momentum with a
10 percent hike in its defense budget worth almost $145
billion.
Treading not too far behind are South Korea that
ramped up spending by 7 percent between 2016 and 2020.
Australia significantly increasing its defense budget to 2
percent of GDP within a decade.
Apart from refurbishing depleting military assets, the increasing
mutual distrust in the region is driving these countries to
bolster their military buildup.
In the Northeast Asian bloc North Korea’s nuclear audacity
continues to haunt South Korea. Recently China released a
report about Pyongyang’s capability to manufacture nuclear
material and weapons.
As per the estimate North Korea – which has conducted three
nuclear tests since 2006 – may already possess 20 warheads with
capacity to generate additional weapons-grade fissile material.
In South and Southeast Asian bloc, China continues to display its
temerity. The latest of its overtures are
reports of Beijing
building a floating island in the South China Sea which could
be
used formilitary purposes.
The official statement
mentioned that China’s activities are mainly for
civilian purposes, but also are intended to serve “necessary
military defense requirements.”
Countries in dispute with Beijing in the South China Sea region,
such as the Philippines and Vietnam, immediately pressed the
panic button by agreeing to
conduct joint naval exercises.
Further in South Asia, India remains wary of the incessant arming
of its arch rival Pakistan which overtly states “deterring”
India as the reason for its arms buildup. Islamabad has expressed
its desire to
acquire short-range tactical nuclear weapons that could
directly target New Delhi.
Beijing’s ever deepening defense ties with Pakistan further
worries India. Recently China promised to
supply Pakistan with 110 latest JF-17 Thunder fighter jets.
However, none of the blocs can face their opponents on their own:
Seoul can’t confront North Korea without support, India or the
smaller Southeast Asian nations can’t challenge China.
Bigger powers like the US are taking advantage of this weakness
of its allies and partners – who have the desire but lack the
capability – to confront two of Washington’s most formidable
irritants in Asia – China and North Korea.
So coinciding the military buildup in Asia the US has launched
its next
phase of Asia rebalance. This phase will focus on
strengthening defense ties in the region. The US Defense
Secretary Ashton Carter talks about an unprecedented increase in
military presence with new stealth fighters, new stealth bombers,
and several new ship classes.
To counter Pyongyang Washington will assist South Korea in its
military preparedness. For Beijing the US seems to be creating a
defense network surrounding China with countries like Vietnam in
Southeast Asia, and India in South Asia.
The US perceives the activities of North Korea – banned from
conducting nuclear tests by UN resolutions – as ‘provocative’.
During Secretary Ashton’s recent visit to South Korea, Pyongyang
fired two short-range missiles off its western coast. Beijing
directly confronts the image of American might through its
defense buildup believed to have been designed to target
American forces and limit their ability to operate near the
Chinese mainland.
The
“anti-access, area-denial” (A2/AD) weapons,for instance can
wipe out American forces from China’s innermost defense zone:
the so-called “First Island Chain” consisting of the Kuril
Islands, Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines and Borneo. Its
first fifth-generation fighter, the J-20 – yet to enter service,
is believed to have the potential to target American support
aircraft or attack American ships and bases in the Asia-Pacific.
Assisting in Seoul’s arms build up
South Korea is at the center of Washington’s efforts towards
reinforcing deterrence and improving capabilities on the Korean
Peninsula to defuse any attack from North Korea.
Perhaps the most publicized step from Washington here is the
offering of the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD)
system. With THAAD Seoul can potentially counter any North Korean
preemptive attack within minutes.
Additionally Seoul will also be involved in a trilateral
partnership with Japan and the US for building a
“first-of-its-kind information-sharing arrangement.” It will
assist to collectively deter and respond to crises.
The trio released a joint statement – “Trilateral
Information Sharing Arrangement Concerning the Nuclear and
Missile Threats Posed by North Korea.” It stated that the
three countries will continue working-level consultations for
effective implementation of the arrangement for sharing
information on North Korean nuclear and missile threats.
Lining up enemies’ enemies
To counter China, Washington is building up a geographically
distributed network of partners and deepening defense
relationship with them.
For instance in Southeast Asia it is militarily equipping
countries like Vietnam. US recently offered the country its
guided missile destroyer and a littoral combat ship to engage
with Vietnamese Navy vessels. On the same lines deeper
partnerships are being forged with Singapore.
The US plans to enter into agreement with Japan and Australia to
shift Marines from a concentrated presence on Okinawa to
Australia, Hawaii, Guam, and mainland Japan. The maritime forces
will rotate between the Philippines and Australia. This ensures
continuing of the US military presence in Australia – one of the
players in the Indian Ocean region (IOR) – another theater China
is expanding rapidly.
A very important partner for Washington is India, which also
commands considerable influence in the IOR.
India wants the role of a
net security provider of the region. Washington has always
supported this aspiration as India’s rise will also create a
counter balance to China.
Many US analysts
suggest joint development, between New Delhi and Washington,
of India’s next-generation aircraft carrier. The US should offer
India its latest technology to help increase the Indian Navy’s
combat power. It should also offer access to various advanced
aviation systems for airborne early warning and battle
management.
However the region is getting further realigned. On the one hand,
ardent US allies like South Korea and Australia are increasingly
boosting relationship with China. Australia has expressed its
support for Beijing led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank
(AIIB). For Seoul Beijing is one of the biggest trading partners.
Now Beijing doesn’t want Seoul to accept the Pentagon’s THAAD
offer. The
Chinese perceive it as a threat to their military strategy,
primarily to the artillery Beijing built up targeting the US.
So these US allies are constantly trying to devise a
balancing act between the US and China.
At the same time China too has been trying to soften its postures
towards India. Beijing wants to leverage New Delhi’s goodwill in
South Asia and IOR to further its inroads in the region. In India
too foreign policy analysts advise aligning deeper with Beijing
and be a beneficiary to economic initiatives like the AIIB or
‘One belt, one road’ policy.
So it is this new reality that the US has to take into account to
be able to make any dent in its long aspired Asia rebalance
dream.
The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of RT.