EBRD Predicts Russian Economic Slowdown in 2012-2013

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said in a revised forecast that the Russian economy will grow more slowly than it previously projected reflecting weaker internal and external demand and growing capital outflow.

“On current trends, GDP growth is expected to slow to 3.2% in 2012 and pick up slightly to 3.3% in 2013,” EBRD said in its Regional Economic Prospects report on Thursday.

“End-year inflation is expected to reach 6.8 per cent – well above the 5-6 per cent inflation target,” the report said.

The EBRD findings suggest that “political and economic uncertainty [in Russia] continues to affect the investment climate,” as net capital outflows amounted to around US$ 57 billion during the first nine months of 2012.

The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have also predicted a looming economic slowdown in Russia during the same period.

In October 8 report, the World Bank lowered its forecast for Russia’s 2012 GDP growth to 3.5 percent from the previously projected 3.8 percent, while the economic growth forecast for 2013 was downgraded from 4.2 percent to 3.6 percent.

According to a new World Economic Outlook Update released by the IMF in October, Russia’s GDP is expected to grow by 3.7 percent in 2012 and by 3.8 percent in 2013.

In 2011, the Russian economy grew by 4.3 percent.


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