Kiev Is Giving up on Control of Donbass

This article originally appeared at Deep Resource

Most western media are ‘soft-controlled’ by the government and in end effect by Washington. For starters, the editors and journalists hired can be trusted to follow the cultural-Marxist party line, no need to ‘control’ them explicitly.

So if for instance der Spiegel writes something, you can expect it to be in line with what Washington thinks. Yesterday der Spiegel came with the surprising advice to Kiev to ‘cave in, in order to win‘: – Kiew muss aufgeben, um zu siegen

The author of the article Benjamin Bidder says that Kiev’s plan A, regain control over the entire area of the former Ukraine, is unrealistic (which it is). Kiev forces have low morale and are up against an enemy backed by Russia, with virtually endless military resources. Even if Washington would send in heavy weapons, it would not make a difference.

The article starts with the lie that the war was forced upon Ukraine by Russia. In reality it was the violent CIA coup in Kiev, the demand that Ukranian should be the only official language, as well as intimidating tones from the operetta Nazis from Lvov to ‘teach the Moskals a lesson’, that triggered the Donbass resistance. Additionally the very realistic threat that Ukraine could join NATO on the fast track forced Moscow’s hand in Crimea. There would not have been a war in Ukraine without the western backed Euro-Maidan protest + subsequent violent coup.

Bidder accuses Poroshenko of denial of reality and that he should accept that rebel hold territories are lost for Kiev and that Kiev can’t win this war. As long as the war lasts, no real beginning can be made with the reconstruction of Ukraine (at the expense of the EU taxpayer).

But now comes the really interesting part: Bidder says that continuation of the war is in the interest of Moscow, not Kiev. The war is a tool for the Kremlin to reverse the Maidan-revolution.

One day later it seems as if Poroshenko does indeed follows Bidder’s advice, when he calls for deployment of an EU peacekeeping police force to separate the combatants, with the Balkans as a positive example.

[] – Ukraine fordert EU-Soldaten zur Kontrolle der Front

Apparently Poroshenko has indeed given up on Donbass. Angela Merkel repeated yesterday her familiar message that, although Russia violated international law by annexing Crimea, EU-governments were nevertheless interested in shaping a ‘European peace order’, including Russia.

Editor: smart tones from der Spiegel. The US has probably understood that it will not be possible to drag Europe into a conflict/(cold) war with Russia and that Crimea and Donbass are lost and that the West must be satisfied with rump-Ukraine. Under these conditions war is more in the interest of Moscow than the West.

With peace in Ukraine, the West can begin to consolidate its gains and incorporate rump-Ukraine into the West. Germany and France will block any notion of Ukraine becoming a NATO member, not to antagonize Moscow too much.

The big question is: will Moscow go along and accept the loss of rump-Ukraine from its sphere of influence? Our tentative guess would be: probably yes, but peace could still be some time off, when NAF will try to occupy the rest of the Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts, as they have announced they will.

But as long as the rest of ‘Novorossia’ refuses to revolt, than there is no hope for Moscow for regime change in Kiev, at least not in the short term. Perhaps in the long term, when Ukraine becomes disillusioned with the West and Europe in particular. But for the moment, Ukraine will probably give Europe a try for at least a couple of years.

The following package, acceptable to both EU and Russia, is in the cards:

  • Ukraine not member of NATO
  • Association treaty Rump-Ukraine with EU
  • International recognition of Crimea and probably Donbass as members of the Russian Federation
  • Lifting of all sanctions
  • Basket case Ukraine becomes a responsibility for the West (read: an already financially overstretched Europe)

In the long term, this is not a bad deal for Russia. It is obvious that the EU does not want conflict, let alone a new cold war with Russia, unlike the US. At some point the role of the US will be greatly diminished anyway (that racial and financial house of cards will fall apart in 202x) and the rise of China to superpower status will drive Russia and EU almost automatically into each others arms.

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