Warc, the marketing intelligence service, expects global advertising spend to increase by 4.3% in 2012 and by 4% in 2013 according to its latest international ad forecast. That’s a downgrade compared to its June report of 0.5% and 1.5% respectively.
The reduction in forecast growth for advertising spend next year (based on 12 major markets) is a reflection, says Warc, of the continued uncertainty about the global economy.
Taking inflation into account, it means that global adspend is expected to rise by just 1.8% this year and by 1.6% in 2013.
The US – the world’s largest ad market with predicted revenue of $153bn in 2012 – is expected to expand at a slower rate of 2.5% next year without the benefit of certain big events.
Suzy Young, Warc’s data editor, explained: “The global ad market has been boosted this year by quadrennial events, namely the Olympics, the US presidential election and, to a lesser extent, Euro 2012. Next year will suffer by comparison, with advertisers having fewer incentives to spend when the underlying mood is generally one of caution.”
These factors will also affect the UK spend, which is predicted to be 2.5% next year but, adjusted for inflation, will rise by only 0.5%.