A Greek exit from the eurozone may cause Russia’s GDP to slump by 2 percent per annum, capital flight to rise to $100 billion and the ruble to be devalued, an expert from Sberbank’s Center of Macroeconomic Studies said late on Wednesday.
“The worst-case scenario will provoke a capital flight of up to $95-100 billion and a 2 percent plunge in GDP,” Sberbank’s Andrei Sinyakov said at a presentation briefing for report on eurozone peripheral countries in the wake of Europe’s lingering sovereign debt crisis.
Sberbank experts believe a Greek exit would force the ruble value of the dollar/euro bi-currency basket plunge from 35 to 39 rubles and send the ruble down to 35 rubles against the dollar from the current 31 rubles.
Considering current developments in Europe, the exit of some countries from the eurozone is inevitable, Sinyakov said.
“In these circumstances, the scenario of the eurozone preservation is unlikely,” Sinyakov said.
Both Greece and Portugal continue to breach Europe’s fiscal deficit and sovereign debt targets, while Spain continues to build up its debt, he said, adding economic activity is on decline in virtually all EU countries.
Kseniya Yudayeva, head of the Sberbank Center of Macroeconomic Studies, said a complete disintegration of the eurozone was a fantastic scenario but most likely Greece and then possibly Portugal would leave it.
Spain and Italy leaving the eurozone is highly unlikely, she said.