Capital flight from Russia may reach about $50 billion in 2012, Deputy Economic Development Minister Andrei Klepach said on Monday.
“The forecast is about $50 billion. It may be slightly more or slightly less. Everything will depend on oil price dynamics,” Klepach told journalists while accompanying Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev in the Kemerovo region in Siberia.
Russia’s Economic Development Ministry previously projected capital outflow from Russia at $25 billion in 2012.
Russia’s net private capital outflow fell to an estimated $9.5 billion in the second quarter of 2012 from $33.9 billion in the first quarter, according to the Central Bank data.
The Central Bank’s capital outflow forecast for 2012 is $10.5 billion, based on an average oil price of $100 per barrel.
Brent crude oil prices are currently trading at above $107 per barrel.
Capital flight from Russia peaked at $133.7 billion in 2008 when the global economic crisis broke out, falling to $56.1 billion in 2009. Capital outflow from Russia stood at $80.5 billion in 2011 compared with $34.4 billion in 2010.
Investors usually avoid emerging markets like Russia in periods of turmoil, preferring to seek safe havens in developed markets.